* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 10/31/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 34 36 43 50 57 61 64 70 71 66 62 55 56 55 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 34 36 43 50 57 61 64 70 71 45 33 29 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 34 37 41 44 47 50 52 38 30 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 21 17 15 21 17 17 17 15 10 14 12 13 11 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 0 -1 2 0 1 -3 -3 2 1 2 4 -3 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 350 354 7 5 357 21 13 351 345 355 357 69 72 91 128 116 142 SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.1 30.2 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.2 30.0 30.1 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 170 169 169 169 170 171 172 172 172 171 172 161 159 158 156 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 7 8 6 7 5 6 5 5 4 4 3 5 4 700-500 MB RH 70 70 73 75 77 77 80 79 82 83 84 83 84 84 77 75 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 4 5 5 7 9 11 13 14 17 17 15 13 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -16 -5 3 8 24 50 91 112 113 113 89 94 125 108 89 70 200 MB DIV 37 40 56 73 71 72 56 52 63 97 129 121 121 169 108 13 -8 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -3 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -4 0 0 -4 -1 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 237 246 258 278 268 246 271 232 235 322 366 120 -157 -110 -54 -21 -16 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.9 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.5 14.9 14.0 13.2 12.8 12.9 13.5 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.2 68.1 68.8 69.4 69.9 70.8 71.8 73.3 75.3 77.4 79.8 82.4 84.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 5 5 5 7 10 10 11 12 13 11 7 4 1 0 HEAT CONTENT 94 93 88 83 82 95 129 99 68 51 38 39 5 46 40 38 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 3. 11. 21. 29. 37. 45. 52. 57. 60. 59. 59. 57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -10. -16. -19. -19. -21. -20. -19. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 14. 14. 10. 5. 1. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 8. 5. 2. -2. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 5. 3. -0. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 11. 18. 25. 32. 36. 39. 45. 46. 41. 37. 31. 31. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.8 67.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 10/31/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.52 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 88.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.54 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.98 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 25.0% 12.7% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% 0.0% Logistic: 8.3% 23.3% 11.7% 4.7% 2.7% 7.7% 13.2% 32.7% Bayesian: 1.4% 33.4% 9.7% 1.7% 2.1% 15.3% 10.1% 49.0% Consensus: 4.8% 27.2% 11.4% 4.7% 1.6% 7.7% 12.1% 27.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 10/31/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 10/31/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 34 36 43 50 57 61 64 70 71 45 33 29 28 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 32 39 46 53 57 60 66 67 41 29 25 24 23 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 27 34 41 48 52 55 61 62 36 24 20 19 18 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 31 38 42 45 51 52 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT