* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP192023 10/31/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 43 41 39 39 43 48 50 53 58 59 65 69 75 77 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 43 41 39 39 43 48 50 53 58 59 65 69 75 77 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 42 41 38 35 34 34 34 36 38 44 53 65 79 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 15 18 21 17 13 11 13 10 7 3 4 6 4 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 4 4 -1 -1 -1 2 2 0 -1 -4 -3 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 96 86 90 104 117 139 159 139 128 138 141 136 168 159 155 149 139 SST (C) 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.5 27.9 28.1 29.3 27.5 28.3 28.8 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.4 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 143 145 145 146 141 145 159 140 149 154 158 161 161 159 154 152 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 3 3 2 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 72 74 76 79 80 77 79 77 77 75 70 65 65 61 62 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 15 14 14 15 16 16 14 14 14 12 14 13 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 34 35 35 34 55 56 46 38 24 20 21 22 20 32 33 20 28 200 MB DIV 102 83 92 102 96 62 74 73 48 -11 -53 -25 3 39 51 43 46 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 4 5 8 9 2 0 -1 -2 -4 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 277 253 229 207 184 218 311 450 629 741 876 963 1020 1072 1145 1209 1288 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.6 11.8 11.7 11.2 10.7 10.0 9.4 9.0 9.0 9.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.6 90.1 89.7 89.6 89.6 90.4 91.7 93.9 96.3 98.9 101.5 103.8 105.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 3 2 2 5 9 12 13 13 12 10 10 10 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 7 10 13 14 13 7 7 18 5 12 15 14 16 17 16 17 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 13. 18. 24. 28. 32. 36. 38. 39. 38. 37. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -14. -13. -11. -8. -5. -1. 2. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -4. -4. -4. -6. -4. -4. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 14. 20. 24. 30. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.2 90.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192023 PILAR 10/31/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.55 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.11 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.66 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 16.9% 13.7% 10.4% 6.4% 14.9% 13.8% 7.9% Logistic: 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 6.0% 4.6% 3.5% 2.1% 5.0% 4.8% 3.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192023 PILAR 10/31/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##