* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 10/31/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 42 48 52 56 57 60 58 53 53 53 55 58 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 42 48 52 56 57 60 49 34 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 30 31 33 36 39 42 44 47 41 31 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 17 17 20 16 17 16 18 11 5 12 17 21 13 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 -3 -1 2 1 -1 -1 0 0 2 1 0 -3 -7 -8 SHEAR DIR 356 6 358 354 6 18 359 351 350 355 25 82 78 122 140 137 160 SST (C) 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.1 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 29.8 30.4 30.1 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.5 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 170 167 170 171 172 166 172 172 167 166 163 164 157 148 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 5 4 700-500 MB RH 68 71 72 74 75 77 78 80 82 85 85 84 82 78 77 72 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 4 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 14 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -16 -2 4 9 42 78 96 100 105 112 79 94 83 55 47 39 200 MB DIV 34 60 71 71 50 51 39 57 79 133 155 133 129 126 39 22 0 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 -4 -1 5 1 1 5 3 1 0 LAND (KM) 233 260 260 273 250 271 243 257 281 360 239 -41 -164 -66 -38 -130 -185 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.2 14.4 13.6 12.9 12.8 13.1 13.6 14.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.7 68.4 69.0 69.7 70.2 71.3 72.7 74.6 76.7 78.9 81.3 83.9 86.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 7 9 11 11 11 12 12 11 8 6 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 89 86 80 74 74 97 109 71 51 43 38 36 25 39 46 32 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 3. 12. 21. 30. 38. 46. 53. 58. 61. 60. 60. 58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -5. -10. -15. -17. -18. -20. -22. -22. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 6. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 5. 2. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 23. 27. 31. 32. 35. 33. 28. 28. 28. 30. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.9 67.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 10/31/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.50 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 80.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.50 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.96 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 21.6% 12.4% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 16.9% 8.8% 5.2% 2.4% 8.0% 6.9% 30.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 5.2% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 2.6% 1.8% 36.1% Consensus: 2.9% 14.5% 7.5% 4.4% 0.8% 3.5% 7.1% 22.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 10/31/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 10/31/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 36 42 48 52 56 57 60 49 34 29 28 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 33 39 45 49 53 54 57 46 31 26 25 24 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 34 40 44 48 49 52 41 26 21 20 19 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 25 31 35 39 40 43 32 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT