* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP192023 10/31/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 41 39 39 38 43 48 55 64 71 73 75 77 79 83 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 41 39 39 38 43 48 55 64 71 73 75 77 79 83 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 42 41 37 35 34 35 37 41 49 58 67 71 69 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 19 19 18 14 14 10 10 6 2 3 10 12 14 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 2 0 -2 -1 0 4 3 4 -1 1 6 7 8 1 SHEAR DIR 92 95 107 118 125 146 160 135 144 86 88 170 201 208 200 199 209 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.6 28.8 28.5 28.5 29.0 29.7 29.8 29.2 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 143 142 141 139 153 151 151 156 163 164 157 150 151 151 151 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 3 2 3 2 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 72 75 77 78 77 78 77 79 78 74 68 65 61 56 58 53 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 16 15 15 14 14 15 15 16 17 17 17 18 17 19 850 MB ENV VOR 37 36 33 52 61 52 41 29 28 22 19 31 31 31 34 48 87 200 MB DIV 59 75 87 87 66 63 19 25 14 -8 -45 -10 25 63 20 15 18 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 3 5 7 11 7 2 0 -2 -1 0 -1 1 LAND (KM) 243 224 205 202 200 274 385 591 686 822 963 1078 1142 1202 1229 1288 1335 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.5 11.7 11.8 11.8 11.5 11.0 10.4 9.8 9.4 9.1 9.2 9.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.2 90.1 89.9 90.0 90.2 91.3 93.2 95.7 98.5 101.2 104.0 106.7 109.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 3 8 11 14 14 14 14 13 11 7 7 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 14 13 10 5 18 15 11 16 16 17 15 14 16 16 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 29. 33. 37. 40. 40. 39. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -10. -8. -6. -5. -4. -2. 1. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. -0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -2. 3. 10. 19. 26. 28. 30. 32. 34. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.4 90.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192023 PILAR 10/31/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.53 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.14 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.56 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.74 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 13.2% 11.3% 8.4% 0.0% 13.3% 12.4% 6.9% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 4.6% 3.8% 2.8% 0.0% 4.5% 4.3% 2.7% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192023 PILAR 10/31/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##