* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 10/31/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 22 20 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 22 20 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 23 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 5 8 10 12 21 26 34 45 51 52 53 52 41 35 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 -1 -4 0 3 7 9 2 0 -2 -1 0 6 10 7 SHEAR DIR 278 277 214 231 255 254 258 255 251 246 244 226 220 212 224 219 219 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.1 27.5 27.0 27.3 28.2 28.9 29.1 28.5 27.2 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 146 145 144 143 144 143 137 132 135 144 150 152 147 135 135 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 47 45 46 45 43 42 40 41 40 38 37 34 34 32 34 31 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -3 8 16 18 18 10 -10 -22 -40 -49 -33 -17 12 59 62 83 200 MB DIV 28 -9 -18 -48 -45 -21 27 17 -2 -7 -1 -6 -26 -20 -15 16 -8 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 0 2 4 5 6 -1 -6 -1 0 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 1434 1359 1290 1246 1191 1108 1039 983 891 755 616 506 491 524 588 697 836 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.1 12.6 12.9 13.3 13.9 14.5 15.1 16.1 17.3 18.3 18.8 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.5 116.0 115.6 115.3 115.0 114.5 114.3 114.4 114.5 114.1 113.3 112.1 111.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 5 5 4 4 3 4 6 6 6 5 3 3 4 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 10 10 14 20 19 9 3 6 15 22 27 18 4 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 8 CX,CY: 6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. 35. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -6. -14. -21. -28. -34. -38. -39. -41. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. -6. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -14. -18. -19. -23. -22. -21. -19. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.6 116.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 10/31/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.76 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.62 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.08 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.1 49.8 to 0.0 0.68 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.3% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 9.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.7% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 5.4% 4.3% 0.1% 0.1% 3.9% 3.2% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 10/31/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##