* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 10/31/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 29 32 38 47 54 57 57 58 59 57 56 56 58 62 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 29 32 38 47 54 57 57 58 45 33 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 34 37 41 44 45 38 30 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 16 16 15 11 16 15 19 12 11 12 22 21 17 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -2 -2 0 1 1 -3 -1 0 -1 -1 -4 -4 -5 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 7 7 7 13 26 24 10 5 5 11 42 98 106 131 143 177 186 SST (C) 30.2 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.8 30.3 30.2 30.0 30.0 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.5 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 171 169 170 169 169 171 169 165 171 171 170 170 160 161 164 157 149 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 8 6 7 5 6 4 5 4 5 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 70 74 77 77 77 79 79 83 84 84 83 84 81 79 75 79 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 4 11 18 28 64 89 100 92 112 85 87 95 61 37 28 33 200 MB DIV 42 61 50 41 44 67 73 70 139 124 111 77 73 73 43 -6 38 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -4 0 1 4 3 7 3 1 1 LAND (KM) 311 270 262 272 286 255 239 242 332 357 141 -87 -122 -84 -53 -125 -160 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.4 15.3 15.2 15.0 14.3 13.4 12.7 12.4 12.8 13.6 14.2 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.4 70.4 71.1 71.6 72.1 73.2 74.7 76.4 78.1 80.0 82.1 84.2 86.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 6 5 5 8 9 9 9 10 11 10 8 8 7 4 0 HEAT CONTENT 77 77 90 103 113 99 66 49 44 37 39 31 48 39 47 33 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 4. 12. 22. 31. 40. 47. 54. 59. 62. 61. 61. 59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -2. -7. -11. -14. -15. -19. -21. -22. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 7. 13. 22. 29. 32. 32. 33. 34. 32. 31. 31. 33. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.5 69.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 10/31/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.57 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 92.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.57 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.95 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 39.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.89 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 19.5% 12.1% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 9.9% 3.4% 0.9% 0.6% 5.5% 11.6% 45.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 20.4% 3.9% 0.5% 0.4% 7.7% 2.3% 38.7% Consensus: 2.2% 16.6% 6.5% 3.0% 0.3% 4.4% 9.2% 28.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 10/31/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 10/31/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 29 32 38 47 54 57 57 58 45 33 29 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 31 37 46 53 56 56 57 44 32 28 26 26 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 33 42 49 52 52 53 40 28 24 22 22 22 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 33 40 43 43 44 31 19 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT