* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP192023 10/31/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 41 41 40 44 50 57 62 68 73 77 77 78 80 83 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 41 41 40 44 50 57 62 68 73 77 77 78 80 83 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 43 42 40 37 36 36 37 41 48 58 68 75 75 72 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 21 21 22 17 14 9 9 6 10 5 6 10 15 17 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 0 -1 0 -2 -1 0 -4 -2 -1 0 4 4 6 5 SHEAR DIR 88 101 119 129 144 162 161 127 105 123 134 186 197 215 227 216 220 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.1 27.8 28.0 29.3 28.0 28.9 29.3 29.9 29.8 29.1 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 144 142 140 144 158 146 155 159 165 164 156 151 149 150 150 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 3 2 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 76 78 79 78 76 77 79 80 79 77 71 68 59 57 54 52 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 13 15 16 15 15 15 17 18 18 18 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 39 33 52 63 63 41 35 21 25 27 31 36 37 34 34 62 83 200 MB DIV 71 94 104 74 58 28 35 29 8 -15 -23 29 52 43 3 35 22 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 1 3 7 5 6 3 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 2 LAND (KM) 240 227 213 221 232 310 468 619 729 863 974 1060 1148 1186 1207 1283 1346 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.3 10.8 10.1 9.7 9.4 9.4 9.6 10.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 89.7 89.8 89.8 90.1 90.5 92.2 94.4 96.9 99.7 102.4 104.9 107.3 109.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 6 10 12 14 13 13 12 12 10 7 7 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 16 11 8 8 35 7 15 15 17 18 15 14 16 15 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 20. 26. 30. 35. 38. 41. 41. 40. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -9. -8. -7. -6. -4. -1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -1. 5. 12. 17. 23. 28. 32. 32. 33. 35. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.3 89.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192023 PILAR 10/31/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.55 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.08 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.59 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.3% 11.8% 8.7% 5.2% 13.5% 12.6% 7.2% Logistic: 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.9% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.1% 4.0% 2.9% 1.7% 4.5% 4.5% 3.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192023 PILAR 10/31/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##