* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 10/31/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 25 24 23 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 25 24 23 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 23 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 8 11 12 16 22 29 42 49 51 51 42 39 35 31 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -3 -3 3 9 8 4 1 0 -4 5 5 9 7 5 SHEAR DIR 280 237 267 289 290 261 258 241 249 245 238 227 227 230 246 230 228 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.1 27.0 27.5 27.9 27.8 27.1 27.5 27.6 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 146 145 143 142 139 133 132 137 140 139 134 139 141 147 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 47 47 46 45 42 39 40 41 40 39 35 30 28 28 26 29 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 4 3 3 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 1 7 10 15 13 3 -16 -29 -41 -42 -28 -11 16 21 19 14 200 MB DIV -10 -32 -58 -58 -41 -5 20 2 -15 -8 -26 -44 -55 -33 -19 -7 8 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 1 1 4 6 9 4 -2 -1 1 2 4 6 8 LAND (KM) 1389 1334 1280 1230 1176 1097 1023 946 828 695 581 562 616 729 906 1104 1267 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.2 14.9 15.7 16.9 17.9 18.5 18.3 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.4 116.1 115.8 115.6 115.3 114.9 114.8 114.8 114.7 114.0 113.0 112.2 112.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 5 3 4 8 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 11 10 11 14 12 4 3 7 11 9 3 10 8 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 18. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. 33. 34. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -10. -17. -25. -32. -37. -39. -39. -39. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -18. -22. -23. -25. -23. -19. -15. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 116.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 10/31/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.76 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -39.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.6 49.8 to 0.0 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 15.4% 10.8% 1.0% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 5.5% 3.6% 0.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 10/31/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##