* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 11/01/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 39 49 60 74 83 85 72 62 53 48 48 50 56 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 39 49 60 74 83 85 48 33 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 41 51 64 71 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 13 14 12 11 12 9 4 8 11 19 21 29 19 17 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 1 -2 -2 -4 0 2 1 -1 5 -5 -8 -7 -6 -1 SHEAR DIR 7 9 357 10 11 359 347 6 77 99 89 101 133 155 166 188 216 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.9 30.2 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.4 28.4 28.0 28.1 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 168 168 169 171 168 168 172 167 167 164 158 142 135 135 146 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 -52.0 -52.4 -51.7 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -51.9 -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 2 4 2 5 4 7 700-500 MB RH 69 74 75 75 76 75 78 83 83 81 80 81 77 78 79 75 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 7 7 9 11 12 17 20 20 13 9 6 4 4 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR -1 14 21 28 52 94 108 121 129 108 123 122 82 63 62 70 69 200 MB DIV 49 52 59 81 92 65 73 122 121 97 123 99 105 39 -3 15 10 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 1 1 0 -1 7 10 4 1 0 2 LAND (KM) 277 246 238 257 296 317 327 403 336 42 -165 -121 -130 -141 -108 -133 -70 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.2 14.6 14.0 13.6 13.9 14.3 14.4 14.6 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.9 70.8 71.4 72.0 72.5 73.8 75.5 77.6 80.1 82.8 85.5 88.0 89.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 6 6 5 8 10 11 13 13 13 10 8 8 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 74 82 93 104 113 101 75 56 46 47 17 36 14 9 11 6 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 4. 12. 22. 31. 39. 46. 53. 58. 61. 59. 59. 57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. -0. -4. -7. -13. -16. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -11. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 13. 17. 18. 7. 0. -5. -10. -10. -10. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 7. 3. -0. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 24. 35. 49. 58. 60. 47. 37. 28. 23. 23. 25. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.6 69.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 11/01/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.62 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 93.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.58 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.93 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.44 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 24.9% 12.7% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 15.6% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 26.7% 11.5% 7.1% 5.4% 16.7% 24.3% 64.6% Bayesian: 0.5% 22.5% 4.6% 0.5% 0.7% 9.9% 3.6% 72.8% Consensus: 3.0% 24.7% 9.6% 5.2% 2.0% 8.9% 14.5% 45.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 11/01/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 11/01/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 34 39 49 60 74 83 85 48 33 29 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 36 46 57 71 80 82 45 30 26 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 30 40 51 65 74 76 39 24 20 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 30 41 55 64 66 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT