* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP192023 11/01/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 46 44 43 43 46 49 52 54 55 56 57 60 63 68 73 V (KT) LAND 50 49 46 44 43 43 46 49 52 54 55 56 57 60 63 68 73 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 46 44 41 39 39 40 43 45 46 46 45 42 40 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 21 20 13 10 7 1 6 7 15 11 15 19 20 20 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -3 -5 0 0 0 -2 -3 -1 0 2 2 4 0 4 SHEAR DIR 105 117 133 141 158 205 92 182 208 230 217 207 206 213 216 196 200 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.0 27.6 28.7 28.7 28.4 29.1 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.3 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 147 143 139 152 153 150 157 163 163 161 157 152 150 147 149 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 3 2 2 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 78 79 77 78 80 80 81 80 76 74 71 65 58 58 57 51 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 58 72 64 55 39 37 27 15 17 18 7 -1 -5 15 38 39 200 MB DIV 98 105 78 83 60 17 13 -14 -37 -22 -10 -19 -20 13 21 26 86 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 1 4 4 2 7 6 3 3 1 2 1 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 186 187 189 211 242 355 552 648 787 893 986 1042 1100 1141 1203 1264 1299 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.2 10.7 10.1 9.7 9.7 9.9 10.2 10.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 89.4 89.5 89.7 90.3 91.0 93.0 95.5 98.3 101.1 103.8 106.2 108.2 109.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 4 6 8 12 13 14 14 12 11 9 8 8 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 22 20 17 9 6 15 20 9 16 17 17 18 16 14 16 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 14. 20. 25. 29. 32. 35. 37. 37. 36. 35. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -4. -1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 10. 14. 18. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 11.7 89.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192023 PILAR 11/01/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.52 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.24 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.61 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.6% 15.1% 12.3% 0.0% 17.3% 13.8% 7.1% Logistic: 0.2% 2.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 1.1% 4.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.6% 5.2% 4.2% 0.0% 5.9% 5.0% 3.7% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192023 PILAR 11/01/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##