* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 11/01/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 12 14 12 18 25 38 47 52 49 47 43 42 34 31 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -4 -5 1 9 8 6 0 0 -3 0 0 0 1 3 6 SHEAR DIR 214 251 288 296 274 245 246 248 251 243 228 233 224 230 237 234 227 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.3 27.0 27.4 28.0 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.2 27.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 145 144 144 143 141 135 132 136 142 148 149 151 155 142 135 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 46 44 43 41 39 38 39 40 42 41 35 35 30 30 27 29 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 11 10 14 13 3 -16 -28 -46 -33 -37 -11 5 21 23 35 32 200 MB DIV -21 -53 -50 -23 -11 17 10 7 5 -21 -7 -62 -74 -60 -8 6 63 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 2 5 6 8 -1 -7 -6 -7 -2 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1310 1250 1201 1147 1093 1023 954 863 747 598 487 417 405 470 557 674 798 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.7 15.4 16.4 17.6 18.7 19.2 19.4 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.8 115.4 115.2 114.9 114.6 114.4 114.4 114.5 114.4 113.6 112.5 111.4 110.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 3 5 5 6 6 5 5 4 4 5 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 10 11 13 18 17 7 3 7 17 21 23 30 36 10 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 6. 12. 17. 22. 25. 27. 29. 31. 32. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -5. -13. -22. -29. -35. -39. -41. -41. -42. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -5. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -14. -18. -24. -28. -29. -29. -26. -23. -20. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 115.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 11/01/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.74 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.57 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 -4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -31.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.01 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.6 49.8 to 0.0 0.45 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.6% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 3.6% 2.1% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 6.5% 4.4% 0.1% 0.2% 3.7% 0.0% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 11/01/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##