* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 11/01/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 37 48 60 71 77 72 61 56 54 53 51 52 56 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 37 48 60 71 77 62 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 35 43 52 61 57 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 13 9 10 12 8 10 7 15 21 25 24 21 22 16 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 1 -2 -1 0 -6 -4 -6 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 359 9 30 31 14 10 8 13 108 79 89 102 131 133 152 154 168 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.9 30.3 30.1 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 169 170 170 167 168 171 172 164 165 164 160 163 161 161 157 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 6 8 6 6 4 5 3 4 3 5 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 75 76 76 77 77 76 82 85 86 85 84 81 81 78 80 72 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 6 7 7 9 10 13 14 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 21 32 58 76 98 112 119 111 92 117 103 68 49 39 34 31 200 MB DIV 42 39 51 69 52 56 78 143 135 135 136 108 80 60 44 45 27 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 3 1 0 4 3 1 0 -1 1 LAND (KM) 238 261 302 318 354 319 347 354 218 -28 -176 -110 -112 -93 -97 -90 -66 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.2 14.8 13.9 13.1 12.8 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.4 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.4 72.4 73.0 73.5 74.1 75.6 77.4 79.4 81.5 83.8 85.9 87.4 88.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 6 6 7 9 10 10 11 11 9 7 5 4 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 93 108 116 121 108 73 52 40 38 37 6 8 39 25 34 32 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 4. 13. 22. 31. 40. 47. 54. 59. 62. 60. 60. 58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. -6. -11. -16. -18. -20. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. -14. -14. -12. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 5. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 6. 3. -0. -3. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 23. 35. 46. 52. 47. 36. 31. 29. 28. 26. 27. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.5 71.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 11/01/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.71 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 109.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.68 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.95 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 39.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.88 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 35.1% 19.2% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 20.5% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 21.8% 9.5% 3.3% 1.8% 9.7% 26.9% 60.8% Bayesian: 0.6% 32.3% 7.2% 1.0% 1.3% 10.5% 8.1% 82.0% Consensus: 3.6% 29.8% 12.0% 4.3% 1.0% 6.7% 18.5% 47.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 11/01/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 11/01/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 33 37 48 60 71 77 62 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 34 45 57 68 74 59 35 27 25 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 40 52 63 69 54 30 22 20 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 30 42 53 59 44 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT