* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP192023 11/01/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 48 47 46 47 49 52 53 56 59 61 62 67 72 76 V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 48 47 46 47 49 52 53 56 59 61 62 67 72 76 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 50 49 48 45 42 40 40 41 43 47 50 50 47 44 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 11 9 10 6 5 7 8 10 7 10 18 21 14 18 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 -2 0 3 3 0 0 -2 0 0 2 4 5 4 8 SHEAR DIR 116 132 127 164 189 249 206 242 240 252 201 201 217 239 233 231 232 SST (C) 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.8 28.2 29.1 28.2 29.0 29.5 29.9 29.7 29.1 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 142 142 147 157 148 156 160 165 162 156 151 149 151 150 151 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 3 2 2 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 77 77 78 80 80 79 80 75 75 72 67 56 57 57 57 55 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 68 57 50 38 26 18 11 14 19 20 8 -3 -8 9 24 28 200 MB DIV 89 45 43 37 38 29 9 -27 -34 -31 21 10 37 2 22 23 42 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 4 6 4 7 8 3 1 0 0 2 0 -1 2 2 LAND (KM) 164 175 191 236 276 466 614 763 888 1008 1110 1163 1171 1237 1335 1390 1406 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.7 11.2 10.3 9.7 9.4 9.2 9.2 9.7 10.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 89.6 90.1 90.5 91.5 92.4 94.9 97.9 100.6 103.0 105.2 107.5 109.5 111.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 7 9 10 14 15 12 11 11 10 10 9 7 8 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 17 11 8 6 9 27 8 16 16 17 17 15 14 16 16 11 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 15. 22. 27. 30. 34. 37. 38. 38. 37. 36. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -5. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 17. 22. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 12.0 89.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192023 PILAR 11/01/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.51 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.42 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 62.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.75 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 17.8% 15.1% 12.4% 0.0% 17.2% 13.2% 7.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 3.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 6.5% 5.2% 4.2% 0.0% 5.8% 4.6% 3.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192023 PILAR 11/01/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##