* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 11/01/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 22 21 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 12 10 12 18 26 37 43 48 46 36 35 33 36 37 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -5 0 4 13 9 5 0 -1 0 6 5 7 6 4 4 SHEAR DIR 245 284 298 273 261 249 244 252 261 261 253 255 243 257 244 247 246 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.3 28.2 28.2 27.8 27.7 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 144 143 142 143 142 140 132 129 130 135 146 147 143 142 136 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 44 43 40 39 38 41 45 45 44 42 40 35 34 34 35 35 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 8 16 13 7 -3 -24 -37 -51 -54 -39 -39 -17 0 12 16 20 200 MB DIV -49 -49 -32 -13 -10 4 2 5 16 -29 -38 -55 -15 -26 -24 0 7 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 4 6 8 5 5 5 5 5 3 5 LAND (KM) 1295 1256 1216 1177 1152 1112 1083 1045 998 962 985 1075 1228 1425 1632 1840 2015 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.6 14.0 14.5 15.2 16.0 16.5 16.4 16.0 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.5 115.3 115.1 114.9 114.8 114.8 115.2 115.7 116.1 116.2 116.4 117.2 118.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 3 2 3 3 4 4 1 2 6 9 11 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 10 10 11 12 10 8 6 7 7 13 16 9 6 17 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 24. 27. 29. 31. 34. 35. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. -1. -7. -15. -24. -32. -37. -40. -41. -39. -39. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -8. -6. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -13. -18. -23. -28. -35. -41. -45. -43. -37. -30. -24. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 115.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 11/01/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.73 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.54 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 170.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 -4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -30.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.01 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.7 49.8 to 0.0 0.40 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.2% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.7% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 11/01/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##