* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 11/01/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 45 55 62 64 61 56 53 51 51 50 51 57 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 45 55 62 64 38 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 31 36 42 48 54 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 8 5 7 10 11 11 14 21 25 27 19 20 17 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 0 3 2 -3 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 16 40 50 40 13 360 51 81 83 99 103 122 142 144 155 156 164 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.4 31.0 30.2 30.0 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.1 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 170 171 171 172 172 169 156 156 161 160 151 146 145 140 140 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.1 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 3 5 4 700-500 MB RH 76 77 79 78 78 81 86 88 89 87 86 85 81 80 80 77 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 7 6 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 38 60 83 94 108 114 110 98 92 117 88 52 37 20 9 2 200 MB DIV 32 49 61 65 70 63 118 138 156 130 75 94 35 42 52 53 33 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 -1 -5 2 3 4 4 4 5 3 2 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 271 271 310 354 381 393 301 189 5 -132 -32 -31 -65 -95 -126 -141 -109 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.6 15.3 14.9 14.4 13.3 12.3 12.0 12.0 12.4 12.9 13.6 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.8 73.8 74.5 75.1 75.9 77.8 79.9 81.8 83.7 85.4 87.0 88.1 89.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 7 8 10 11 11 9 9 9 7 5 5 5 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 108 122 115 96 84 58 36 34 30 42 31 34 25 16 9 5 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 3. 12. 22. 32. 40. 48. 54. 59. 62. 60. 61. 60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -4. -10. -16. -20. -22. -22. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -13. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 20. 30. 37. 39. 36. 31. 28. 26. 26. 25. 26. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.6 72.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 11/01/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.77 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 105.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.65 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.21 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.98 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.90 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 24.6% 12.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 18.2% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 13.6% 5.6% 2.0% 0.8% 6.9% 24.9% 66.6% Bayesian: 1.0% 26.6% 11.0% 1.4% 1.8% 16.6% 17.2% 87.2% Consensus: 2.9% 21.6% 9.7% 3.6% 0.9% 7.8% 20.1% 51.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 11/01/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 11/01/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 35 45 55 62 64 38 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 33 43 53 60 62 36 29 27 26 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 38 48 55 57 31 24 22 21 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 29 39 46 48 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT