* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP192023 11/01/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 51 50 50 50 53 53 54 56 59 61 64 68 72 75 V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 51 50 50 50 53 53 54 56 59 61 64 68 72 75 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 48 47 44 41 38 38 39 41 44 46 47 45 42 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 9 9 13 15 6 8 6 11 6 8 8 15 17 17 16 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 1 4 2 2 4 5 4 SHEAR DIR 133 138 150 193 210 242 237 253 265 261 218 215 240 260 261 253 248 SST (C) 28.3 27.8 27.7 28.2 29.2 28.4 28.5 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 28.5 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 141 141 147 158 150 151 157 158 157 151 149 151 155 150 150 149 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 3 2 2 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 74 76 79 79 77 79 78 73 72 69 64 57 56 58 60 59 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 50 47 28 26 22 16 18 11 21 17 8 -7 -12 1 17 19 200 MB DIV 46 30 31 9 0 18 -17 -42 -56 -10 4 33 16 18 33 24 39 700-850 TADV 2 2 4 10 12 6 6 3 1 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 133 170 197 263 355 540 683 839 965 1070 1148 1208 1254 1338 1446 1468 1453 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.3 12.2 12.0 11.7 10.8 10.1 9.6 9.4 9.5 10.0 10.3 10.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.1 90.8 91.4 92.6 93.9 96.6 99.6 102.3 104.7 107.3 109.7 111.2 111.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 9 12 14 14 15 12 12 12 10 5 5 10 10 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 10 7 5 9 25 10 12 15 14 14 12 14 18 20 12 13 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 445 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 16. 23. 28. 31. 34. 36. 37. 37. 36. 35. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. -6. -4. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 3. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 18. 22. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 12.4 90.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192023 PILAR 11/01/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.53 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.42 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 63.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.78 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 19.3% 15.1% 12.0% 8.2% 16.7% 13.1% 6.7% Logistic: 0.9% 5.3% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.7% 0.9% 5.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 8.2% 5.5% 4.2% 2.8% 5.8% 4.7% 3.9% DTOPS: 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192023 PILAR 11/01/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##