* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 11/01/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 29 38 51 59 62 57 52 48 48 48 48 52 58 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 29 38 51 59 44 33 31 28 28 28 28 32 37 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 19 20 21 25 29 34 30 28 32 32 30 30 31 33 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 10 12 11 8 10 4 12 16 22 24 17 16 9 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -1 -3 -2 0 1 0 -3 -4 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 15 19 9 354 348 355 5 134 92 101 107 135 168 182 180 169 166 SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.5 30.6 30.8 30.2 29.9 29.4 29.7 29.2 28.8 29.2 29.2 28.7 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 171 171 172 172 172 168 159 164 154 148 154 153 144 141 142 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 7 8 6 6 4 5 4 5 3 5 4 6 6 8 700-500 MB RH 77 78 78 77 78 81 82 85 85 87 86 85 80 81 78 77 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 9 11 11 9 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 28 49 70 82 93 95 118 101 102 113 79 54 37 27 27 23 24 200 MB DIV 42 51 47 51 49 84 133 151 145 54 59 45 29 26 26 28 15 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -4 -4 -2 0 4 5 2 2 0 2 2 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 296 291 299 301 286 360 348 109 -135 -2 14 49 79 135 163 171 136 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 14.7 14.4 14.0 13.6 12.9 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.5 73.1 73.8 74.6 75.6 77.8 80.1 82.5 84.9 87.3 89.2 90.9 92.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 8 8 7 5 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 114 112 100 82 72 53 38 39 24 32 20 13 15 15 12 13 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 3. 12. 23. 33. 41. 49. 56. 62. 65. 64. 65. 64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 0. -5. -10. -14. -16. -15. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 3. 0. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 9. 18. 31. 39. 42. 37. 32. 28. 28. 28. 28. 32. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.0 72.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 11/01/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 96.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.59 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 149.0 27.0 to 144.1 1.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.90 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 20.9% 9.7% 3.8% 2.0% 8.4% 25.2% 69.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 20.4% 4.7% 0.4% 0.8% 2.6% 5.7% 70.6% Consensus: 2.1% 13.8% 4.8% 1.4% 0.9% 3.7% 10.3% 46.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 11/01/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 11/01/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 25 29 38 51 59 44 33 31 28 28 28 28 32 37 18HR AGO 20 19 20 23 27 36 49 57 42 31 29 26 26 26 26 30 35 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 23 32 45 53 38 27 25 22 22 22 22 26 31 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT