* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP192023 11/01/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 40 39 40 40 43 44 45 46 47 46 49 53 57 60 V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 40 39 40 40 43 44 45 46 47 46 49 53 57 60 V (KT) LGEM 45 43 41 39 37 34 31 30 29 30 31 32 31 28 24 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 14 13 9 11 9 9 11 10 16 20 26 22 25 33 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 2 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 9 11 8 3 SHEAR DIR 141 168 197 212 225 216 232 235 245 209 205 218 246 250 252 245 248 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.7 29.3 28.6 28.3 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.1 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 144 152 160 153 149 157 158 156 151 151 154 154 149 150 149 146 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 76 78 79 77 77 79 72 73 71 66 58 55 56 59 57 58 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 30 28 25 30 15 12 7 16 25 18 8 0 10 16 13 8 200 MB DIV 32 31 8 -10 17 7 -33 -28 -3 28 34 15 -1 39 1 15 42 700-850 TADV 3 6 10 13 9 8 6 4 2 1 0 3 1 2 1 2 4 LAND (KM) 174 204 262 399 498 647 814 974 1066 1157 1272 1355 1398 1424 1455 1471 1475 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.3 12.2 11.7 11.2 10.3 9.8 9.4 9.5 9.7 9.8 10.2 10.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.2 92.2 93.1 94.6 96.0 99.1 102.2 104.9 107.2 109.4 111.5 113.3 114.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 12 15 15 15 14 13 11 11 9 8 7 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 13 26 13 10 15 14 14 12 17 20 28 11 13 12 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 453 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 19. 26. 32. 36. 39. 41. 43. 43. 42. 40. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -8. -11. -11. -9. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -6. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 8. 12. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.4 91.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192023 PILAR 11/01/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.61 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.43 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 38.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 16.6% 13.0% 9.9% 6.7% 13.8% 12.8% 7.0% Logistic: 0.6% 6.5% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 3.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 7.7% 4.8% 3.5% 2.3% 4.8% 4.4% 3.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192023 PILAR 11/01/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##