* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP192023 11/02/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 39 41 43 47 50 51 51 51 51 52 53 55 56 56 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 39 41 43 47 50 51 51 51 51 52 53 55 56 56 V (KT) LGEM 40 37 35 33 32 30 30 32 33 35 37 39 38 35 31 26 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 14 12 6 6 8 7 11 6 10 8 19 20 24 27 34 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 3 0 1 0 -3 -1 -2 -1 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 SHEAR DIR 168 190 205 165 193 213 262 271 238 232 229 225 249 272 255 251 251 SST (C) 28.0 28.9 29.3 28.6 28.1 28.9 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.6 28.9 29.1 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 155 159 153 148 156 159 157 152 150 153 155 149 150 149 147 144 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 76 74 76 76 76 73 70 68 70 65 57 58 58 58 56 56 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 12 11 11 11 10 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 27 20 19 14 13 0 7 3 17 20 0 -10 -9 0 5 2 -9 200 MB DIV 19 15 -1 17 5 -21 -37 -35 -7 9 36 10 6 4 30 13 31 700-850 TADV 7 12 13 6 7 6 2 1 1 -1 0 1 -1 0 1 4 4 LAND (KM) 192 294 411 502 566 757 914 1042 1148 1222 1278 1351 1445 1468 1482 1515 1570 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.0 11.6 11.2 10.7 9.9 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.9 10.3 10.8 11.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.1 93.4 94.6 96.1 97.7 100.9 103.6 106.3 108.9 110.8 112.3 113.9 115.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 16 16 15 13 13 11 9 8 9 9 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 17 27 12 7 15 14 13 12 13 20 21 11 13 12 10 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 13. 21. 29. 36. 39. 42. 45. 47. 47. 46. 45. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. -11. -9. -6. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 12. 13. 15. 16. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.4 92.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192023 PILAR 11/02/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.67 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.47 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 18.2% 13.3% 9.8% 6.9% 14.7% 14.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 8.3% 1.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 6.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 8.8% 5.0% 3.6% 2.4% 5.2% 4.9% 2.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192023 PILAR 11/02/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##