* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 11/02/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 20 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 23 20 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 12 12 15 28 30 41 41 41 33 36 38 39 47 54 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 7 12 13 8 6 0 3 6 6 2 4 12 7 3 1 SHEAR DIR 289 277 255 252 241 262 268 274 270 265 262 267 259 259 263 275 289 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.4 27.5 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 145 145 147 147 147 147 146 138 139 135 133 133 132 133 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 42 42 43 43 46 52 49 46 45 46 44 48 47 48 46 46 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 1 -2 -7 -21 -40 -44 -59 -34 -16 -7 0 8 26 41 58 48 200 MB DIV -23 -8 1 -2 -17 -6 2 8 -20 -13 -51 -28 -11 -16 -3 -5 12 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 1 3 1 2 4 3 4 4 7 5 LAND (KM) 1300 1280 1275 1266 1258 1277 1293 1315 1391 1553 1738 1921 2087 2229 2297 2356 2378 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.2 13.5 12.9 12.4 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.8 115.8 115.9 116.1 116.3 117.1 117.9 118.7 119.5 120.9 122.8 124.8 126.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 3 3 5 4 3 6 9 10 10 10 7 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 10 11 12 13 14 11 9 4 4 3 2 2 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 24. 29. 34. 37. 40. 42. 41. 39. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -12. -22. -32. -38. -44. -48. -48. -46. -46. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -12. -11. -9. -6. -4. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -10. -15. -18. -23. -29. -34. -37. -38. -36. -32. -26. -22. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 115.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 11/02/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.74 0.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 0.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.12 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 -0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.12 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.17 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.1 49.8 to 0.0 0.70 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.11 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 3.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 11/02/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##