* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 11/02/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 25 28 36 44 50 50 46 39 38 38 42 45 50 59 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 25 28 36 44 32 32 28 21 20 20 24 27 32 41 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 31 27 31 32 31 29 28 28 30 33 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 13 10 7 9 6 15 23 24 25 21 17 10 8 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -5 -2 -4 -1 1 0 -1 -2 -5 -6 -5 -1 -3 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 18 17 19 14 7 37 56 102 122 128 146 168 189 207 172 178 181 SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.6 30.9 31.0 30.2 29.6 29.4 29.5 28.7 28.9 29.1 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 171 172 172 172 163 160 161 146 150 152 142 146 151 156 157 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 4 3 5 4 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 79 79 78 79 80 84 86 87 88 88 88 83 82 75 75 71 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 90 100 104 111 114 112 117 102 70 45 27 18 5 2 1 15 200 MB DIV 68 63 63 66 80 129 156 178 137 87 11 -14 14 1 18 33 30 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 2 10 8 5 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 364 357 356 390 424 315 34 -125 43 59 103 183 238 192 176 183 199 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.3 14.0 13.7 13.3 12.8 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.3 13.6 13.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.5 75.4 76.3 77.3 78.3 80.6 83.2 85.8 88.3 90.3 92.1 93.7 95.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 12 13 13 11 9 9 7 5 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 95 83 77 68 55 38 36 28 24 13 12 13 10 13 17 21 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 2. 12. 23. 33. 42. 50. 56. 61. 64. 64. 65. 64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. -1. -8. -16. -20. -23. -23. -21. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -13. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -7. -6. -6. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 8. 16. 24. 30. 30. 26. 19. 18. 18. 22. 25. 30. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.6 74.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 11/02/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 75.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.47 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 151.4 27.0 to 144.1 1.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 22.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.90 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 21.6% 11.3% 4.2% 1.3% 9.0% 16.5% 59.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 7.6% 3.8% 0.8% 0.3% 2.3% 4.2% 67.5% Consensus: 1.6% 9.7% 5.0% 1.7% 0.5% 3.8% 6.9% 42.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 11/02/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 11/02/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 22 25 28 36 44 32 32 28 21 20 20 24 27 32 41 18HR AGO 20 19 21 24 27 35 43 31 31 27 20 19 19 23 26 31 40 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 22 30 38 26 26 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT