* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 11/02/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 23 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 22 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 13 14 21 27 35 47 44 35 32 37 42 48 46 44 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 12 12 9 8 4 -5 -1 3 4 2 6 4 4 5 3 SHEAR DIR 278 255 255 248 253 264 274 283 276 283 282 274 277 285 275 283 296 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 27.7 27.9 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 146 146 148 149 148 146 147 141 144 138 137 136 135 133 133 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 42 43 43 46 49 49 46 46 48 44 43 45 47 48 49 46 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 3 4 3 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -7 -15 -25 -28 -43 -49 -54 -21 -17 -9 -14 -3 11 19 20 26 200 MB DIV -5 -1 -12 -19 -25 1 10 -12 -21 -30 -48 -19 -5 -15 -7 -12 7 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 2 1 4 1 0 -2 0 2 0 3 1 5 6 LAND (KM) 1335 1336 1337 1330 1338 1358 1388 1446 1600 1802 2015 2207 2353 2441 2475 2480 2469 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.4 13.7 13.7 12.9 12.0 11.2 10.8 10.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.3 116.5 116.7 116.9 117.2 118.1 118.9 119.7 120.9 122.6 124.7 126.9 128.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 4 5 4 5 9 11 11 10 7 4 2 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 12 12 14 13 11 17 8 6 4 3 4 4 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 26. 31. 36. 40. 43. 45. 43. 41. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -6. -16. -28. -38. -44. -50. -55. -56. -53. -49. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. -11. -9. -6. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -10. -15. -20. -26. -31. -35. -36. -36. -36. -32. -27. -22. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 116.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 11/02/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.75 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.11 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.4 49.8 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.05 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 11/02/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##