* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 11/02/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 25 33 41 47 48 45 42 43 44 47 50 56 63 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 25 33 29 33 34 31 27 28 30 33 36 41 48 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 25 30 32 32 31 30 30 31 34 38 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 8 5 7 5 10 20 23 23 21 16 14 11 9 8 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -2 -2 0 2 0 -4 -5 -2 0 0 -2 -6 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 12 9 360 329 13 71 88 113 137 154 176 199 220 245 260 243 235 SST (C) 30.2 30.5 30.8 30.7 30.3 29.8 29.3 29.4 28.1 28.6 28.1 28.8 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 171 172 172 172 172 167 158 160 139 146 138 147 155 160 162 164 164 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -52.6 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 2 4 3 5 4 7 5 8 6 700-500 MB RH 77 76 78 78 81 83 85 87 89 90 87 83 83 80 81 77 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 89 97 109 119 124 104 122 98 68 44 26 23 7 7 19 19 27 200 MB DIV 54 53 73 94 101 132 137 131 51 9 4 6 3 34 29 50 51 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -3 0 0 2 7 10 9 7 7 5 3 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 381 388 418 449 362 87 -149 58 113 165 267 173 152 154 149 135 150 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.6 13.3 12.9 12.6 12.6 12.8 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.5 76.5 77.6 78.8 80.0 82.7 85.4 88.1 90.6 92.9 95.0 96.6 97.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 12 12 12 13 14 13 12 11 9 7 6 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 81 77 67 52 41 38 43 23 8 10 7 14 21 29 32 31 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 3. 13. 24. 34. 43. 51. 57. 62. 64. 64. 65. 64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. -1. -8. -14. -17. -19. -19. -18. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -13. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 13. 21. 27. 28. 25. 22. 23. 24. 27. 30. 36. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.5 75.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 11/02/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.39 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 151.9 27.0 to 144.1 1.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.90 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 17.2% 8.1% 2.5% 0.7% 8.3% 14.9% 57.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 4.6% 2.4% 0.6% 0.2% 2.5% 0.3% 39.4% Consensus: 1.2% 7.3% 3.5% 1.0% 0.3% 3.6% 5.1% 32.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 11/02/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 11/02/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 23 25 33 29 33 34 31 27 28 30 33 36 41 48 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 24 32 28 32 33 30 26 27 29 32 35 40 47 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 28 24 28 29 26 22 23 25 28 31 36 43 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT