* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 11/02/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 21 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 16 21 27 34 43 39 34 25 30 33 37 37 41 39 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 11 11 8 6 5 0 2 3 8 6 4 9 8 4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 256 259 256 255 257 269 286 272 276 278 270 279 281 283 288 310 321 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.1 27.7 28.0 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 144 145 145 144 143 143 145 142 145 136 134 132 131 130 128 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 43 44 48 49 53 48 46 48 47 45 46 46 47 47 46 47 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 4 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -14 -26 -29 -34 -54 -74 -41 -12 -6 -4 -5 16 26 25 12 11 200 MB DIV 12 1 -12 -14 0 6 8 6 -21 -32 -30 -12 -24 -19 -37 -43 -32 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 2 2 2 1 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 2 4 4 LAND (KM) 1317 1315 1313 1314 1306 1310 1337 1453 1631 1857 2069 2238 2330 2361 2361 2338 2268 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.7 14.2 14.4 13.8 12.8 11.7 10.9 10.6 10.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.5 116.8 117.1 117.4 117.7 118.4 119.0 119.9 121.2 123.0 125.1 127.1 128.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 5 4 4 7 10 11 11 7 4 1 1 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 10 11 11 12 11 8 15 7 7 3 3 3 2 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 25. 31. 36. 40. 42. 43. 41. 38. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -9. -20. -30. -37. -43. -48. -52. -52. -48. -44. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -12. -11. -9. -6. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -10. -16. -22. -28. -32. -34. -34. -35. -34. -30. -25. -20. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 116.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 11/02/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 156.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.26 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.5 49.8 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.15 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 11/02/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##