* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 11/02/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 21 23 30 36 40 41 39 38 42 46 51 56 63 72 V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 21 21 28 34 38 39 37 37 41 45 50 54 62 70 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 25 30 31 31 31 30 31 33 37 43 51 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 3 7 15 17 19 24 22 20 12 11 7 4 5 4 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 0 -2 0 0 -5 -7 -3 0 -3 -3 -1 -1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 209 229 183 120 99 101 104 120 126 146 174 190 227 265 215 260 241 SST (C) 30.6 30.4 30.1 29.8 29.4 29.0 29.6 27.6 27.0 28.2 28.8 27.9 27.7 28.4 29.0 29.6 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 173 173 173 167 160 153 162 130 123 139 148 134 131 141 151 161 167 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 4 5 3 4 3 4 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 77 79 81 83 85 86 86 88 89 88 82 82 79 82 78 80 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 104 121 118 120 115 137 117 74 48 34 24 2 -3 -11 -13 -22 -18 200 MB DIV 59 83 108 136 167 149 129 43 12 20 12 23 9 18 56 67 52 700-850 TADV -2 0 3 5 5 9 5 3 2 1 2 2 0 -3 -1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 346 317 161 52 -85 22 251 343 377 404 467 452 434 462 519 553 577 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 14.7 14.2 13.7 13.0 11.7 10.8 10.5 10.6 10.8 11.1 11.6 11.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.7 80.2 81.7 83.0 84.4 86.7 88.7 90.3 91.7 93.2 94.8 96.3 97.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 14 12 9 7 7 8 8 7 6 7 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 71 56 45 44 16 19 37 6 2 14 34 8 5 10 20 31 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 4. 14. 25. 36. 45. 54. 60. 65. 68. 68. 70. 70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. -3. -9. -17. -22. -23. -23. -22. -19. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -13. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. 1. 3. 10. 16. 20. 21. 19. 19. 22. 26. 31. 36. 43. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.9 78.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 11/02/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 149.5 27.0 to 144.1 1.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 11.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.91 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 13.2% 4.4% 1.5% 0.5% 6.2% 11.0% 43.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 4.2% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.8% 62.0% Consensus: 0.9% 5.8% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 2.2% 3.9% 35.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 11/02/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 11/02/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 19 19 21 21 28 34 38 39 37 37 41 45 50 54 62 70 18HR AGO 20 19 19 21 21 28 34 38 39 37 37 41 45 50 54 62 70 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 18 25 31 35 36 34 34 38 42 47 51 59 67 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT