* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP192023 11/02/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 54 56 58 61 63 64 63 58 55 49 47 44 43 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 53 54 56 58 61 63 64 63 58 55 49 47 44 43 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 52 53 53 54 56 59 62 64 61 55 46 38 32 26 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 4 6 7 6 8 13 13 17 24 24 26 32 35 41 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 1 -2 -3 -2 0 0 5 10 6 5 1 3 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 180 208 238 252 258 230 211 214 218 220 236 256 257 273 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.8 28.2 28.7 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.1 27.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 148 154 160 158 158 157 153 152 145 146 147 145 140 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 5 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 75 77 74 70 70 68 68 63 59 53 52 46 42 36 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 12 11 11 12 14 13 14 14 14 12 12 9 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 5 1 -1 3 8 14 24 9 18 16 40 50 64 52 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 -1 -3 -36 -44 -22 -9 47 40 40 31 17 20 2 -1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 8 8 8 4 2 1 0 1 4 1 2 4 6 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 431 490 578 675 760 911 1003 1108 1184 1266 1297 1307 1341 1375 1407 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.4 11.0 10.7 10.4 10.3 10.5 10.8 11.3 11.8 12.3 12.9 13.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.1 97.7 99.3 100.8 102.4 105.4 108.0 110.3 112.2 113.8 115.1 116.5 118.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 15 14 12 10 9 8 7 8 8 9 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 5 9 14 16 14 16 16 22 24 10 9 12 9 6 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 19. 26. 30. 32. 33. 35. 35. 35. 33. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. -18. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. -9. -6. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 1. 0. -2. -4. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 13. 8. 5. -1. -3. -6. -7. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 11.8 96.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192023 PILAR 11/02/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.57 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.60 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.08 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 21.6% 17.0% 14.2% 9.8% 19.7% 0.0% 7.4% Logistic: 8.3% 38.8% 12.5% 7.8% 2.0% 4.2% 1.3% 7.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.6% 21.4% 9.9% 7.3% 4.0% 8.0% 0.5% 4.9% DTOPS: 6.0% 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192023 PILAR 11/02/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##