* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 11/02/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 21 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 24 28 30 40 46 41 27 30 31 38 39 41 40 35 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 12 7 7 6 1 -1 3 6 0 4 6 8 5 2 4 10 SHEAR DIR 257 253 257 255 251 270 273 270 274 271 280 274 281 290 298 314 321 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.9 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 145 144 143 142 143 143 140 143 135 131 130 130 128 128 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 43 45 48 49 48 44 45 46 43 44 44 46 45 49 44 47 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -27 -29 -32 -39 -55 -58 -26 -15 -13 -11 7 23 35 31 20 3 200 MB DIV -3 -17 -11 -10 6 28 -10 -35 -53 7 -24 -13 -41 -5 -18 -22 -39 700-850 TADV 1 2 4 2 3 4 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 7 LAND (KM) 1329 1326 1319 1306 1302 1306 1336 1437 1607 1824 2013 2161 2252 2306 2330 2330 2276 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.7 14.7 14.1 13.1 12.0 11.3 11.0 10.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.2 117.6 117.9 118.1 118.4 118.9 119.3 120.0 121.2 122.9 124.8 126.5 127.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 6 9 10 9 7 4 2 2 1 4 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 11 12 12 11 10 8 9 6 6 3 2 2 2 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 23. 29. 34. 38. 40. 41. 39. 37. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -11. -23. -33. -40. -46. -52. -57. -57. -53. -48. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. -11. -9. -6. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -10. -16. -23. -31. -36. -38. -39. -40. -40. -36. -31. -26. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.1 117.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 11/02/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.14 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.0 49.8 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.16 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 11/02/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##