* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 11/03/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 34 42 47 50 49 51 56 61 65 68 72 77 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 25 30 37 42 45 45 46 51 56 61 63 68 72 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 23 28 32 34 36 37 38 40 45 51 59 66 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 3 9 11 12 18 21 19 14 8 5 3 2 1 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -4 -4 0 -3 -7 -9 -5 -1 0 -1 0 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 215 226 9 62 68 109 109 121 144 163 191 218 288 315 205 216 208 SST (C) 30.5 30.3 30.0 29.6 29.4 29.3 28.6 27.1 28.8 28.2 28.0 29.0 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 172 173 171 163 160 157 146 126 149 140 137 152 164 164 162 157 153 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 5 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 79 81 83 84 85 86 86 90 88 86 81 80 80 81 82 82 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 116 114 119 111 117 130 82 50 26 17 12 0 -11 -21 -27 -17 0 200 MB DIV 76 95 121 157 175 111 108 16 -8 0 8 -14 26 53 92 75 61 700-850 TADV 4 4 0 0 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 0 -2 -4 0 1 3 LAND (KM) 394 258 121 6 -127 28 200 300 401 497 493 519 527 570 582 581 566 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.2 13.8 13.4 13.0 12.2 11.6 11.3 11.2 11.2 11.6 12.1 12.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.5 80.8 82.2 83.5 84.8 87.2 89.5 91.7 93.9 96.2 98.5 100.5 102.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 56 49 41 41 12 22 20 3 28 11 7 20 37 24 23 25 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -1. 4. 14. 25. 35. 45. 53. 59. 65. 68. 68. 69. 68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 1. -4. -10. -13. -12. -11. -10. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 22. 27. 30. 29. 31. 36. 41. 45. 48. 52. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.5 79.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 11/03/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.19 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 147.8 27.0 to 144.1 1.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 12.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.91 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 31.4% 11.3% 6.6% 3.4% 15.9% 43.8% 75.6% Bayesian: 1.3% 3.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% 7.9% 96.9% Consensus: 1.7% 11.7% 3.9% 2.2% 1.2% 5.7% 17.2% 57.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 11/03/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 11/03/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 26 25 30 37 42 45 45 46 51 56 61 63 68 72 18HR AGO 20 19 21 24 23 28 35 40 43 43 44 49 54 59 61 66 70 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 18 23 30 35 38 38 39 44 49 54 56 61 65 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT