* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP192023 11/03/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 51 52 52 53 55 54 49 46 43 45 42 42 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 51 52 52 53 55 54 49 46 43 45 42 42 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 51 51 51 51 52 54 57 57 53 47 42 38 34 30 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 7 9 9 12 12 9 10 15 22 20 19 25 31 38 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -4 -5 -5 0 0 4 11 5 4 4 3 2 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 247 266 267 277 264 259 244 208 221 243 239 227 258 277 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.3 28.9 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.2 28.3 28.3 27.9 27.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 150 156 160 159 158 156 154 152 149 145 146 147 143 140 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 74 71 68 68 69 70 72 67 62 61 56 51 44 39 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 10 10 10 11 13 13 12 13 11 11 9 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 6 -2 0 -3 -1 15 16 -1 -3 16 27 52 57 38 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 -11 -48 -63 -58 -24 38 51 74 33 1 27 19 8 -22 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 6 5 2 0 0 2 1 3 2 1 2 5 5 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 549 627 725 806 899 1005 1127 1225 1273 1332 1344 1347 1351 1414 1488 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.0 10.7 10.4 10.2 10.0 10.1 10.3 10.6 11.3 11.8 12.2 12.9 13.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.2 99.8 101.4 103.0 104.6 107.2 109.8 111.9 113.4 114.7 115.9 117.2 118.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 16 14 13 12 9 7 6 7 7 8 9 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 10 15 16 14 15 15 22 20 19 9 11 12 8 6 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 20. 26. 30. 32. 33. 35. 35. 34. 33. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -10. -7. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 1. 1. -2. -1. -3. -5. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 4. -1. -4. -7. -5. -8. -7. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 11.0 98.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192023 PILAR 11/03/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.60 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -36.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% Logistic: 7.0% 31.9% 8.8% 5.6% 3.4% 2.4% 0.5% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 11.2% 3.0% 1.9% 1.2% 0.8% 0.2% 3.3% DTOPS: 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192023 PILAR 11/03/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##