* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 11/03/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 23 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 24 22 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 26 32 36 43 53 51 38 26 29 33 35 32 32 27 27 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 6 6 5 2 -1 -4 7 9 9 2 4 7 7 8 7 9 SHEAR DIR 250 258 257 252 262 267 265 266 260 248 260 261 278 275 287 316 319 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 143 143 141 138 140 142 143 140 143 138 135 132 131 132 136 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 45 46 47 44 40 44 44 43 42 42 43 46 45 43 44 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 2 2 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -25 -24 -37 -43 -54 -48 0 26 32 31 35 36 41 25 24 4 200 MB DIV -6 -1 -7 4 12 25 15 -21 -21 -20 -7 -38 -43 -32 -42 -72 -60 700-850 TADV 4 5 5 5 5 3 1 1 1 0 -1 -2 -1 2 4 2 1 LAND (KM) 1346 1354 1336 1313 1290 1265 1298 1398 1592 1817 2000 2111 2164 2178 2153 2082 1983 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.8 15.5 14.6 13.2 12.0 11.3 10.9 10.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.3 118.9 119.2 119.3 119.4 119.5 119.6 120.0 121.1 122.8 124.6 125.7 126.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 5 4 3 1 4 7 9 10 8 4 2 1 2 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 10 10 11 13 10 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 814 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 16. 22. 28. 33. 36. 38. 39. 38. 36. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -14. -27. -38. -46. -53. -58. -62. -60. -54. -48. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -12. -11. -9. -6. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -10. -16. -25. -35. -43. -48. -50. -52. -50. -46. -38. -32. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.7 118.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 11/03/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.73 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 46.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.1 49.8 to 0.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 11/03/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##