* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 11/03/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 27 33 39 44 47 47 49 56 61 66 68 72 75 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 23 24 32 38 43 45 45 48 54 60 65 67 70 74 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 24 29 32 33 34 35 36 39 45 51 59 66 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 5 10 14 14 21 23 20 14 7 2 2 2 7 17 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -3 -1 -1 -6 -10 -6 -4 0 4 2 0 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 237 330 49 83 111 114 120 123 136 148 150 132 112 125 182 208 224 SST (C) 30.3 30.0 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.3 27.3 28.0 28.7 27.9 28.3 29.4 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 172 171 165 163 160 158 128 137 147 136 141 159 164 162 164 163 161 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 4 5 3 4 3 4 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 81 82 82 85 85 86 87 89 87 82 80 77 81 80 83 81 83 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 121 129 118 122 135 106 66 42 24 16 -13 -23 -38 -17 -19 -27 -15 200 MB DIV 97 111 163 163 160 116 59 3 20 16 -22 -9 34 71 83 45 53 700-850 TADV 6 2 0 2 5 6 3 3 2 4 0 -1 -4 -2 -2 1 4 LAND (KM) 279 143 23 -112 -123 111 240 350 497 527 561 605 672 729 798 843 884 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.0 13.6 13.3 12.9 12.2 11.6 11.2 11.0 11.0 11.3 11.7 12.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.6 81.9 83.3 84.6 85.9 88.4 90.7 92.9 95.1 97.4 99.7 101.9 104.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 13 13 13 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 51 42 46 5 24 22 4 9 30 6 11 24 21 20 21 22 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 14. 26. 36. 45. 54. 60. 65. 69. 69. 71. 70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. -1. -7. -12. -14. -13. -12. -10. -9. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -13. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 27. 29. 36. 41. 46. 48. 52. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.3 80.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 11/03/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.3 27.0 to 144.1 1.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 138.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 14.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.91 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 32.1% 10.1% 5.7% 3.5% 22.0% 33.7% 79.7% Bayesian: 1.0% 3.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 5.2% 95.1% Consensus: 1.4% 11.9% 3.5% 2.0% 1.2% 7.6% 13.0% 58.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 11/03/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 11/03/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 23 24 32 38 43 45 45 48 54 60 65 67 70 74 18HR AGO 20 19 21 21 22 30 36 41 43 43 46 52 58 63 65 68 72 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 25 31 36 38 38 41 47 53 58 60 63 67 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT