* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP192023 11/03/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 42 43 44 47 48 45 37 32 27 27 25 29 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 42 43 44 47 48 45 37 32 27 27 25 29 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 43 41 40 40 41 43 45 44 39 32 26 21 18 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 10 8 12 23 25 24 28 33 25 28 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -4 -4 -2 0 5 12 10 8 9 4 -3 4 10 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 271 286 284 276 268 263 215 220 230 243 234 231 263 292 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 29.1 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 158 160 159 158 156 155 152 146 144 145 147 144 141 135 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 71 67 67 69 69 70 69 64 58 58 51 43 38 41 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 11 11 12 14 14 14 12 11 9 9 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 0 -2 -5 -5 9 22 19 20 21 29 31 58 43 31 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 -41 -63 -45 -35 0 44 71 54 -14 22 21 7 -7 -9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 2 0 0 0 0 3 4 7 2 3 9 10 9 10 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 654 746 843 927 1005 1135 1254 1359 1392 1394 1413 1392 1375 1454 1608 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.4 10.1 10.0 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.6 11.5 12.0 12.2 13.1 14.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 100.2 101.9 103.6 105.2 106.7 109.5 111.8 113.8 115.4 116.5 117.2 118.2 119.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 15 14 13 10 9 8 5 5 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 16 15 14 14 15 21 21 11 10 10 12 9 6 4 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 21. 28. 33. 35. 36. 38. 39. 38. 36. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -19. -17. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -12. -9. -6. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -5. -5. -7. -8. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 2. 3. 0. -8. -13. -18. -18. -20. -16. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 10.6 100.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192023 PILAR 11/03/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.68 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -38.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% Logistic: 0.8% 7.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 2.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 2.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192023 PILAR 11/03/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##