* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 11/03/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 32 36 38 38 38 39 46 51 56 58 62 65 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 23 25 32 36 38 38 37 39 45 51 56 58 62 65 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 20 23 24 29 31 32 32 32 34 38 44 51 59 65 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 7 15 13 18 22 22 17 10 3 1 1 3 10 18 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -4 -2 -3 -6 -11 -9 -5 -3 1 5 1 1 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 358 39 57 70 69 90 111 126 153 184 211 221 99 181 208 222 233 SST (C) 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.4 28.7 27.0 27.9 28.3 27.3 28.5 29.2 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 172 169 165 160 160 148 124 135 141 128 144 155 168 168 167 165 163 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -51.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 5 5 6 6 6 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 80 82 83 84 85 87 90 88 84 77 77 77 79 80 82 80 82 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 132 120 129 137 137 91 62 36 18 8 -10 -20 -27 -23 -26 -23 -14 200 MB DIV 107 171 173 180 151 137 54 4 -16 7 -29 5 34 49 30 34 35 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -4 -2 0 -2 1 4 2 0 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 2 LAND (KM) 205 87 -30 -177 -89 87 205 301 463 453 480 536 612 680 741 803 862 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 13.9 13.6 13.4 13.1 12.5 12.1 11.8 11.6 11.7 12.1 12.3 12.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.3 82.5 83.8 85.2 86.5 89.0 91.1 93.1 95.3 97.5 99.7 101.7 103.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 12 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 44 42 37 10 30 16 3 10 17 3 12 24 32 28 30 30 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 15. 25. 35. 45. 53. 59. 64. 67. 68. 70. 69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 2. -3. -8. -13. -14. -12. -11. -9. -8. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -16. -18. -18. -19. -20. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 16. 18. 18. 18. 20. 26. 31. 36. 38. 42. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.1 81.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 11/03/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.0 27.0 to 144.1 1.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 156.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 18.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.91 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 40.5% 13.0% 9.0% 6.2% 25.2% 46.4% 82.1% Bayesian: 1.2% 7.7% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 5.6% 93.3% Consensus: 1.7% 16.0% 4.7% 3.1% 2.1% 8.6% 17.3% 58.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 11/03/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 11/03/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 21 23 25 32 36 38 38 37 39 45 51 56 58 62 65 18HR AGO 20 19 19 21 23 30 34 36 36 35 37 43 49 54 56 60 63 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 27 31 33 33 32 34 40 46 51 53 57 60 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT