* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 11/03/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 26 30 34 36 39 41 45 51 57 60 61 65 69 V (KT) LAND 20 19 22 24 28 32 36 38 41 43 47 53 59 62 63 67 71 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 28 30 31 32 33 34 38 43 50 57 63 68 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 11 12 13 12 17 19 19 12 6 2 1 2 7 14 16 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -7 -10 -7 -3 -1 2 4 0 2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 28 67 70 77 80 108 124 144 173 210 273 303 174 224 228 223 237 SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 27.8 27.2 28.7 27.6 28.0 28.9 29.5 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 168 165 164 162 158 135 127 147 132 137 150 160 167 166 166 165 167 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 5 3 4 3 4 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 81 83 84 85 86 88 88 88 81 81 78 82 79 80 78 81 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 121 124 136 135 120 74 46 33 18 0 -3 -11 -8 -20 -26 -15 -5 200 MB DIV 151 174 160 170 147 79 0 3 22 -9 -15 13 67 75 60 65 30 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -4 -3 -2 -2 0 3 5 0 -1 -4 -2 -4 -4 0 2 LAND (KM) 92 -13 -158 -108 16 144 251 397 451 470 515 590 680 762 869 938 1001 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.4 13.0 12.3 11.9 11.6 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.2 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.4 83.6 85.0 86.4 87.7 90.1 92.3 94.4 96.6 98.9 100.8 102.7 104.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 13 13 12 10 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 43 43 4 8 26 8 3 27 5 7 18 26 28 24 24 27 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -2. -1. 5. 15. 26. 35. 45. 53. 59. 64. 68. 68. 70. 70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 2. -2. -6. -9. -9. -7. -7. -6. -7. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -13. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -18. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 14. 16. 19. 21. 25. 31. 37. 40. 41. 45. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.0 82.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 11/03/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.99 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 160.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.87 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 16.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.91 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 44.6% 14.1% 8.0% 6.4% 20.7% 39.5% 83.3% Bayesian: 1.4% 15.5% 2.7% 0.4% 0.3% 1.9% 3.2% 94.6% Consensus: 2.1% 20.0% 5.6% 2.8% 2.2% 7.5% 14.2% 59.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 11/03/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 11/03/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 19 22 24 28 32 36 38 41 43 47 53 59 62 63 67 71 18HR AGO 20 19 22 24 28 32 36 38 41 43 47 53 59 62 63 67 71 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 22 26 30 32 35 37 41 47 53 56 57 61 65 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT