* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP192023 11/03/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 43 46 51 55 53 50 40 34 28 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 43 46 51 55 53 50 40 34 28 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 38 39 40 42 45 45 42 36 30 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 10 9 9 4 9 16 26 30 30 32 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -2 0 0 3 16 15 10 7 2 1 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 272 273 278 257 269 287 222 208 211 230 230 234 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 29.0 28.9 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 156 154 152 155 153 143 143 145 144 141 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 66 67 71 69 73 71 64 57 52 48 43 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 11 13 14 14 17 14 15 12 10 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -10 -9 -8 3 27 15 16 34 49 58 66 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -49 -45 -61 -20 19 43 62 72 18 33 7 0 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 6 4 7 11 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 843 946 1034 1093 1167 1284 1406 1395 1407 1398 1369 1418 1508 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.1 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.3 10.8 11.6 12.2 13.1 14.1 14.8 15.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.8 105.6 107.4 108.7 110.0 112.4 114.6 115.7 117.1 118.3 119.1 120.5 122.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 15 13 12 11 9 7 7 7 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 13 13 13 13 22 29 8 9 10 9 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 7. 13. 21. 28. 32. 35. 37. 38. 39. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -12. -16. -20. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 4. 2. 3. -2. -4. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 13. 10. 0. -6. -12. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 10.2 103.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192023 PILAR 11/03/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.71 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.57 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -31.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.01 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.5% 15.0% 11.9% 8.4% 18.0% 15.3% 7.3% Logistic: 5.9% 37.5% 7.6% 4.6% 3.1% 3.5% 1.0% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 19.4% 7.6% 5.5% 3.8% 7.2% 5.5% 3.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 19.0% 10.0% 5.0% 4.0% 12.0% 4.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192023 PILAR 11/03/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##