* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 11/04/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 39 42 45 47 49 51 54 55 59 63 66 69 70 72 73 V (KT) LAND 30 27 27 27 27 32 33 35 38 39 43 47 50 53 54 56 57 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 27 27 31 32 33 34 37 42 47 53 60 65 68 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 10 13 18 22 19 14 8 3 1 4 10 11 18 22 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 0 0 -1 -7 -6 -1 1 1 -2 -4 -3 -1 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 257 214 180 155 149 144 145 152 187 196 221 122 141 184 192 214 219 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.6 29.7 28.8 27.9 28.1 27.3 28.5 29.2 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 166 169 164 166 151 137 139 128 144 155 165 167 167 166 164 164 162 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -53.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 3 4 2 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 80 83 83 85 86 88 86 84 81 81 81 82 79 79 79 77 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 116 112 120 101 79 54 38 16 10 6 -20 -30 -37 -31 -25 -23 -22 200 MB DIV 142 148 145 153 114 37 -5 -2 -6 -8 10 40 75 58 42 35 49 700-850 TADV 1 8 15 15 13 14 6 6 2 0 -1 0 1 2 4 2 3 LAND (KM) 31 -81 -188 -67 -45 122 353 394 451 503 558 634 681 754 800 849 916 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.3 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.1 12.5 12.2 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.8 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.9 84.1 85.7 87.3 89.0 92.1 94.8 97.3 99.5 101.4 103.1 104.9 106.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 14 16 16 16 14 13 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 47 38 16 10 21 7 10 3 12 25 33 30 29 30 30 29 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 23. 31. 40. 47. 53. 57. 60. 59. 60. 59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -0. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -6. -6. -7. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -15. -14. -13. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 21. 24. 25. 29. 33. 36. 39. 40. 42. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.3 82.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 11/04/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 9.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.67 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.90 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 140.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.78 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 26.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.90 2.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 4.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 45.6% 25.6% 9.9% 7.6% 12.2% 14.1% 25.3% Logistic: 21.6% 64.5% 34.8% 30.9% 23.2% 46.1% 55.4% 83.9% Bayesian: 22.5% 74.7% 41.6% 17.3% 6.3% 42.5% 24.1% 97.6% Consensus: 16.5% 61.6% 34.0% 19.4% 12.4% 33.6% 31.2% 68.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 11/04/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 11/04/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 27 27 27 27 32 33 35 38 39 43 47 50 53 54 56 57 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 29 34 35 37 40 41 45 49 52 55 56 58 59 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 31 32 34 37 38 42 46 49 52 53 55 56 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 25 26 28 31 32 36 40 43 46 47 49 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT