* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP192023 11/04/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 42 44 47 52 53 52 47 39 34 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 42 44 47 52 53 52 47 39 34 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 39 39 40 42 45 44 41 36 31 27 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 10 9 9 9 8 11 20 29 30 29 31 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -3 -2 7 16 6 4 2 1 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 269 275 259 276 299 264 206 218 224 240 236 257 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.8 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 155 152 153 154 152 142 144 144 143 141 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 67 71 71 72 74 69 63 56 48 44 38 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 11 11 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -10 -11 2 18 25 9 19 43 60 69 68 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -42 -63 -37 13 57 71 91 30 19 13 19 0 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 0 0 2 2 3 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 946 1005 1072 1140 1209 1323 1384 1404 1384 1391 1406 1418 1451 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.5 11.2 11.7 12.7 13.5 14.2 15.1 16.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.5 107.0 108.4 109.7 110.9 113.2 114.7 116.1 117.5 118.7 119.7 120.9 122.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 13 12 12 10 7 8 8 7 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 13 13 13 15 21 27 8 10 10 8 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 20. 27. 31. 34. 36. 37. 37. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -14. -18. -21. -24. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. -1. -2. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 7. 12. 13. 12. 7. -1. -6. -10. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 10.0 105.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192023 PILAR 11/04/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.70 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.58 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.10 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.7% 15.2% 12.1% 8.5% 17.7% 14.8% 7.5% Logistic: 1.6% 14.2% 2.4% 1.2% 0.6% 1.1% 1.0% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 11.5% 5.9% 4.4% 3.0% 6.3% 5.3% 3.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 23.0% 11.0% 4.0% 3.0% 20.0% 5.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192023 PILAR 11/04/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##