* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 11/04/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 41 43 46 49 53 56 59 62 63 62 59 58 56 V (KT) LAND 30 27 27 27 27 31 33 36 40 43 46 49 50 49 46 45 43 V (KT) LGEM 30 27 27 27 27 30 31 32 34 37 41 45 48 51 52 51 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 6 14 16 18 16 10 6 6 8 9 18 27 30 38 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 0 0 -1 -3 -1 -1 0 0 -3 -5 -2 0 -3 2 SHEAR DIR 263 228 179 151 151 156 163 194 227 253 236 207 203 205 205 205 200 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.6 29.5 28.6 28.5 28.0 27.9 29.4 30.1 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 166 169 164 162 147 145 138 137 159 171 165 161 159 158 156 155 153 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -51.8 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 83 83 85 87 88 87 84 80 83 80 84 81 82 81 79 73 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 107 107 108 84 65 53 39 16 15 6 -19 -30 -17 -15 -6 -10 -12 200 MB DIV 161 147 130 117 99 33 6 -1 -20 15 48 72 72 82 95 130 125 700-850 TADV 7 13 13 16 11 12 10 7 2 -1 -4 4 2 3 3 6 6 LAND (KM) 0 -124 -164 -90 -68 49 286 290 347 382 447 488 546 586 630 655 641 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.1 13.9 13.4 13.3 13.6 14.0 14.2 14.5 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.4 84.6 86.1 87.7 89.3 92.2 95.0 97.7 100.1 102.1 103.8 105.6 107.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 13 15 16 15 14 13 13 11 8 9 8 6 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 38 10 6 5 18 11 7 8 25 43 39 30 32 33 34 39 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 14. 23. 31. 39. 46. 51. 55. 57. 56. 57. 55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -20. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -13. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 16. 19. 23. 26. 29. 32. 33. 32. 29. 28. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.0 83.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 11/04/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.66 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.89 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 130.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.74 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 21.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.90 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 35.9% 16.5% 9.2% 6.9% 11.7% 13.3% 22.1% Logistic: 15.5% 59.3% 29.9% 30.5% 26.0% 50.4% 62.3% 86.0% Bayesian: 11.0% 63.8% 20.9% 10.9% 1.6% 22.4% 32.9% 94.2% Consensus: 10.2% 53.0% 22.4% 16.8% 11.5% 28.2% 36.2% 67.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 11/04/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 11/04/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 27 27 27 27 31 33 36 40 43 46 49 50 49 46 45 43 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 29 33 35 38 42 45 48 51 52 51 48 47 45 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 30 32 35 39 42 45 48 49 48 45 44 42 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 24 26 29 33 36 39 42 43 42 39 38 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT