* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP192023 11/04/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 40 42 44 44 44 41 34 27 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 39 40 42 44 44 44 41 34 27 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 41 41 42 41 38 32 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 8 7 8 7 10 15 26 29 30 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -4 -4 0 14 11 4 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 258 276 303 294 255 225 218 241 248 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 153 154 155 153 145 143 143 144 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 71 71 73 74 71 65 59 57 50 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -13 1 18 31 15 12 25 35 43 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -59 -36 -5 56 54 62 80 18 21 0 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 0 0 -1 3 3 7 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1016 1079 1157 1212 1267 1343 1406 1406 1411 1413 1429 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.8 9.8 9.7 10.0 10.2 10.8 11.4 12.1 12.6 13.4 14.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.7 108.1 109.4 110.7 112.0 113.8 115.5 116.9 117.8 118.9 120.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 11 9 8 7 6 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 13 13 15 21 23 10 9 10 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 13. 20. 26. 30. 33. 35. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -12. -17. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 1. -6. -13. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 9.8 106.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192023 PILAR 11/04/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.69 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.66 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 49.8 to 0.0 0.98 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.1% 15.3% 12.7% 8.7% 16.7% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 17.8% 4.1% 2.1% 1.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 12.1% 6.5% 5.0% 3.3% 6.0% 4.5% 0.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 18.0% 10.0% 5.0% 3.0% 8.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192023 PILAR 11/04/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##