* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP192023 11/04/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 44 44 45 42 35 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 44 44 45 42 35 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 42 43 43 40 35 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 8 5 6 8 12 25 35 34 34 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 4 10 18 10 4 1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 282 305 263 238 213 214 225 236 232 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.2 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 153 154 154 151 147 149 149 145 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 70 74 76 74 71 62 56 47 44 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 15 15 15 14 12 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 4 19 27 22 12 20 36 61 63 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -18 26 63 63 70 87 35 3 -5 9 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 0 -2 3 2 5 11 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1058 1127 1192 1238 1291 1385 1379 1372 1366 1367 1361 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.4 12.1 12.7 13.7 14.6 15.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.8 111.1 112.1 113.1 115.0 116.4 117.3 118.6 119.6 120.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 11 10 10 9 7 7 7 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 14 18 21 21 20 10 12 13 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 32. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -10. -17. -22. -27. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -9. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 2. -5. -12. -21. -28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 10.2 108.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192023 PILAR 11/04/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.69 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.51 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 19.3% 16.0% 13.2% 8.9% 16.8% 12.4% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 26.9% 9.9% 5.0% 1.2% 2.0% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 16.1% 8.8% 6.1% 3.4% 6.4% 4.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 3.0% 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192023 PILAR 11/04/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##