* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 11/04/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 43 48 54 59 63 67 70 69 67 62 58 56 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 27 27 33 38 44 49 53 57 60 59 57 42 32 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 27 27 27 27 31 35 40 45 52 60 67 71 71 51 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 8 7 6 8 10 6 1 5 1 9 20 32 42 55 68 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 1 0 -4 -4 1 3 0 5 8 6 4 0 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 36 53 75 93 107 96 72 82 19 11 272 259 242 233 226 224 222 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.1 28.9 27.9 28.1 28.1 29.9 30.5 30.7 30.3 29.9 28.9 28.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 148 151 153 150 136 139 139 168 172 172 171 167 150 139 127 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -53.2 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 5 3 4 3 5 6 8 7 9 9 8 3 2 700-500 MB RH 83 84 85 88 86 84 79 79 76 77 71 72 68 72 63 57 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 69 68 81 80 42 6 -19 -29 -32 -21 5 2 6 -19 -23 -2 200 MB DIV 120 122 83 61 71 69 11 -4 -27 -15 18 55 62 62 87 104 91 700-850 TADV 2 2 3 5 5 3 2 3 0 -1 0 -2 0 2 2 2 5 LAND (KM) 38 -39 -110 -87 -39 52 84 141 232 165 182 198 169 83 -103 -214 -378 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.8 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.3 13.9 14.4 15.0 15.6 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.5 84.2 85.0 85.8 86.6 88.4 90.4 92.8 95.1 97.4 99.5 101.6 103.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 9 9 9 9 11 12 12 11 11 10 10 8 10 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 28 30 24 18 8 7 7 22 35 45 51 28 16 12 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 7. 14. 23. 31. 39. 46. 51. 54. 56. 54. 54. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 4. -1. -7. -14. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -13. -13. -12. -10. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 18. 24. 29. 33. 37. 40. 39. 37. 32. 28. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.3 83.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 11/04/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.70 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.76 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.56 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 10.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.92 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 24.0% 12.4% 9.0% 6.9% 12.1% 14.6% 28.4% Logistic: 3.0% 30.8% 11.4% 6.1% 5.8% 21.2% 32.9% 81.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 11.4% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% 1.6% 2.2% 97.3% Consensus: 2.2% 22.1% 8.6% 5.1% 4.3% 11.6% 16.5% 68.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 11/04/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 11/04/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 28 27 27 27 33 38 44 49 53 57 60 59 57 42 32 28 18HR AGO 30 29 28 28 28 34 39 45 50 54 58 61 60 58 43 33 29 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 32 37 43 48 52 56 59 58 56 41 31 27 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 26 31 37 42 46 50 53 52 50 35 25 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT