* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP192023 11/05/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 47 46 44 39 32 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 47 46 44 39 32 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 47 47 46 44 39 33 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 10 10 12 18 25 29 32 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 10 16 17 11 6 4 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 222 225 222 223 219 234 226 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 153 150 147 148 148 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 67 68 69 68 60 53 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 14 14 13 13 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 8 2 -4 0 -2 12 13 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 53 53 58 20 -24 18 32 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 1 3 6 11 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1220 1248 1281 1301 1318 1280 1249 1247 1245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.7 13.7 14.7 15.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.7 112.5 113.3 114.0 114.6 115.6 116.8 118.1 119.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 21 21 26 20 10 11 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 10. 15. 19. 21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -4. -9. -15. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -10. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -1. -6. -13. -22. -29. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 10.5 111.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192023 PILAR 11/05/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.63 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 19.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.6% 28.1% 11.9% 7.5% 0.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.3% 9.7% 2.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.4% 18.9% 4.7% 2.8% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192023 PILAR 11/05/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##