* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982023 11/15/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 42 47 52 59 64 64 63 65 65 67 69 73 76 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 38 42 47 52 59 64 64 63 65 65 67 69 73 76 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 35 36 39 42 45 46 46 48 52 55 56 57 58 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 8 7 5 9 13 7 2 8 4 10 13 16 9 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 12 9 3 1 5 3 2 0 2 9 11 9 9 12 13 SHEAR DIR 148 148 167 182 193 212 237 247 128 151 178 270 298 331 324 316 309 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.4 29.4 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 153 154 153 155 162 164 169 161 161 154 152 148 146 148 157 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.7 -51.3 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 -51.7 -51.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 4 5 4 6 6 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 82 84 83 81 82 84 77 74 70 62 56 46 41 43 39 39 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 7 7 10 12 14 16 17 16 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 87 85 80 69 68 64 76 62 74 73 41 20 29 32 7 -7 200 MB DIV 115 153 173 189 180 166 143 100 102 81 44 46 12 -9 0 -50 -20 700-850 TADV 3 1 4 3 1 1 1 0 -4 -8 -1 0 10 7 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 271 210 200 213 234 294 336 350 379 212 67 84 162 183 178 58 161 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.9 12.1 12.6 13.3 14.6 16.2 17.8 19.2 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.1 81.6 81.7 81.6 81.4 80.5 79.0 77.2 75.1 72.7 69.5 66.0 62.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 3 0 2 2 7 9 10 13 16 18 17 14 9 8 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 24 26 26 25 25 32 42 53 90 72 66 66 79 54 64 56 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 14. 23. 32. 39. 46. 50. 54. 55. 53. 53. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. 2. 3. 6. 7. 5. -0. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 22. 29. 34. 34. 33. 35. 35. 37. 39. 43. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.7 81.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982023 INVEST 11/15/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.49 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.76 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 162.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.88 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 25.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.90 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 17.6% 11.3% 7.5% 4.9% 10.7% 13.7% 30.7% Logistic: 2.7% 16.7% 3.5% 1.4% 0.9% 5.4% 15.3% 35.2% Bayesian: 2.0% 17.5% 3.4% 0.7% 0.4% 2.9% 4.8% 42.4% Consensus: 2.2% 17.3% 6.1% 3.2% 2.0% 6.3% 11.3% 36.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982023 INVEST 11/15/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982023 INVEST 11/15/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 38 42 47 52 59 64 64 63 65 65 67 69 73 76 18HR AGO 30 29 31 35 39 44 49 56 61 61 60 62 62 64 66 70 73 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 39 44 51 56 56 55 57 57 59 61 65 68 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 29 34 41 46 46 45 47 47 49 51 55 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT