* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982023 11/16/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 38 42 44 47 50 54 55 54 54 55 58 61 63 65 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 38 42 44 47 50 54 55 54 54 55 58 61 63 65 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 35 36 37 37 36 36 38 42 44 46 48 50 53 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 8 8 12 18 14 3 4 8 8 13 10 11 9 15 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 7 2 3 4 4 3 3 0 0 4 4 5 7 8 3 7 SHEAR DIR 175 211 209 205 177 195 197 240 105 83 92 78 105 125 163 187 192 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 152 152 154 156 163 167 167 165 161 157 157 160 165 167 159 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.3 -51.7 -51.3 -51.3 -51.7 -51.4 -52.1 -51.9 -52.6 -52.4 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 8 7 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 82 81 79 80 80 75 72 70 69 64 59 55 56 55 58 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 9 10 13 13 13 11 10 8 6 4 4 4 3 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 79 71 62 61 59 72 63 37 13 13 0 -15 -2 -25 -5 21 24 200 MB DIV 118 127 145 136 137 136 101 61 61 78 23 13 41 10 -7 37 61 700-850 TADV 2 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 215 174 152 163 184 324 306 267 193 194 132 107 88 112 133 259 433 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.7 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.3 12.2 12.7 13.1 13.3 13.2 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.5 81.9 82.1 82.0 81.8 80.5 78.9 77.3 75.6 73.9 72.7 72.3 72.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 1 2 4 7 8 8 9 7 4 1 3 6 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 27 27 27 33 48 49 60 77 75 66 60 58 56 57 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 14. 23. 32. 40. 47. 53. 57. 60. 59. 60. 59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 4. 4. 4. 2. -0. -5. -9. -12. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 12. 14. 17. 20. 24. 25. 24. 24. 25. 28. 31. 33. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.4 81.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982023 INVEST 11/16/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.55 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.75 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 132.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.75 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.90 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 22.1% 12.2% 8.5% 6.0% 10.7% 12.5% 22.9% Logistic: 1.4% 11.5% 2.9% 0.9% 0.4% 2.1% 3.6% 8.5% Bayesian: 0.6% 3.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 3.3% Consensus: 1.7% 12.3% 5.3% 3.2% 2.1% 4.4% 5.5% 11.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982023 INVEST 11/16/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982023 INVEST 11/16/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 34 38 42 44 47 50 54 55 54 54 55 58 61 63 65 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 40 42 45 48 52 53 52 52 53 56 59 61 63 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 36 39 42 46 47 46 46 47 50 53 55 57 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 26 29 32 36 37 36 36 37 40 43 45 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT