* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982023 11/16/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 40 44 45 47 51 56 60 63 67 72 76 80 81 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 40 44 45 47 51 56 60 63 67 72 68 72 73 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 33 33 31 28 29 32 36 41 45 51 50 55 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 8 16 22 20 11 2 4 6 4 5 5 5 1 5 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 0 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 1 8 5 13 18 19 11 SHEAR DIR 208 210 190 172 172 195 213 117 116 116 329 7 270 333 193 193 211 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 151 153 156 160 166 167 166 158 156 157 156 158 164 166 168 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.5 -51.0 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -51.8 -51.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 7 6 7 7 9 8 9 8 10 7 10 7 700-500 MB RH 80 76 76 77 76 70 67 65 60 52 47 45 43 46 48 50 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 11 13 15 13 16 13 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 61 57 56 64 68 69 18 13 3 -12 0 -2 14 5 8 1 200 MB DIV 129 129 151 139 166 105 61 44 70 45 56 33 0 -27 -35 23 60 700-850 TADV 4 2 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 187 140 136 170 249 400 317 266 228 307 327 327 199 79 9 47 205 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.8 13.9 13.8 13.6 13.2 13.0 13.6 14.3 15.0 15.3 14.8 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.8 82.0 82.0 81.7 81.0 79.2 77.1 74.9 72.6 70.5 69.1 68.6 69.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 3 1 5 8 9 10 12 11 9 5 3 8 10 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 27 29 29 29 31 39 53 74 113 56 74 82 56 42 45 42 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 14. 23. 31. 38. 45. 50. 55. 57. 57. 58. 58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 3. 5. 3. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 14. 15. 17. 21. 26. 30. 33. 37. 42. 46. 50. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 81.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982023 INVEST 11/16/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.53 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.75 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 142.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.79 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 39.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.89 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 16.6% 10.6% 7.2% 4.7% 9.6% 12.1% 26.9% Logistic: 2.0% 11.2% 3.5% 0.8% 0.3% 1.1% 1.8% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 1.5% Consensus: 1.5% 9.5% 4.8% 2.7% 1.7% 3.6% 4.7% 10.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982023 INVEST 11/16/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982023 INVEST 11/16/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 40 44 45 47 51 56 60 63 67 72 68 72 73 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 37 41 42 44 48 53 57 60 64 69 65 69 70 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 35 36 38 42 47 51 54 58 63 59 63 64 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 27 29 33 38 42 45 49 54 50 54 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT