* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982023 11/16/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 36 37 39 41 46 52 56 57 60 63 67 68 73 70 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 36 37 39 41 46 52 56 57 60 63 67 68 73 70 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 32 31 29 28 29 31 34 35 36 36 37 39 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 17 20 23 23 11 6 4 10 17 14 8 9 10 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 4 10 9 0 2 -2 0 5 14 9 8 9 13 14 6 SHEAR DIR 197 180 178 188 197 216 216 156 208 277 302 313 288 283 270 272 248 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.1 29.4 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 156 160 161 164 166 168 159 157 156 153 156 159 154 160 167 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 -51.4 -51.6 -51.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 77 76 76 75 70 65 63 61 56 49 40 39 36 39 40 43 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 15 14 14 14 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 53 54 49 60 91 61 16 5 13 -16 4 -9 10 0 -3 -19 200 MB DIV 124 157 160 162 127 79 40 46 34 31 18 -3 -45 -51 -21 -27 2 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 -4 -8 -1 2 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 185 183 221 285 361 385 355 293 152 128 29 85 203 384 192 87 241 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.5 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.4 14.7 15.4 16.3 17.2 17.7 17.2 16.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.5 81.5 81.1 80.5 79.8 78.1 76.1 73.9 71.7 69.3 67.3 65.9 65.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 5 6 7 9 11 12 12 11 9 6 8 10 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 29 32 39 48 50 59 81 114 57 72 85 77 101 90 59 58 106 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 22. 29. 36. 42. 47. 51. 53. 53. 54. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. -2. -2. -7. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 16. 22. 26. 27. 30. 34. 37. 38. 43. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.0 81.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982023 INVEST 11/16/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.42 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.78 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 146.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.81 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.88 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 23.4% 12.2% 8.4% 6.2% 10.3% 12.1% 20.5% Logistic: 2.5% 13.6% 5.0% 1.6% 0.5% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% Consensus: 2.2% 12.5% 5.8% 3.4% 2.2% 3.9% 4.5% 7.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982023 INVEST 11/16/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982023 INVEST 11/16/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 36 37 39 41 46 52 56 57 60 63 67 68 73 70 18HR AGO 30 29 32 33 34 36 38 43 49 53 54 57 60 64 65 70 67 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 30 32 37 43 47 48 51 54 58 59 64 61 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 25 30 36 40 41 44 47 51 52 57 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT