* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYTWO AL222023 11/17/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 28 26 25 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 28 26 25 25 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 24 22 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 36 37 33 28 29 54 78 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 7 8 8 0 2 0 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 205 219 226 234 240 230 216 213 217 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.8 30.1 30.0 29.7 29.2 27.4 25.5 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 167 173 172 166 159 135 115 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 7 6 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 64 60 59 59 59 66 60 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 43 60 86 95 112 72 57 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 115 90 18 36 53 65 73 94 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 6 4 -9 1 -7 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 274 218 77 19 42 92 642 1194 1167 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.9 17.7 18.7 19.6 22.1 25.7 29.5 34.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.8 79.8 78.8 77.5 76.3 73.3 68.9 64.3 59.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 14 15 17 23 27 29 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 55 74 128 104 59 59 11 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 10. 16. 21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -8. -21. -34. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -16. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.0 80.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL222023 TWENTYTWO 11/17/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 49.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 84.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.52 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.93 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL222023 TWENTYTWO 11/17/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL222023 TWENTYTWO 11/17/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 28 26 25 25 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 27 25 24 24 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 24 23 23 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT