* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYTWO AL222023 11/17/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 25 25 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 25 27 26 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 25 27 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 29 27 25 29 54 69 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 12 11 6 3 1 -1 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 231 238 230 219 208 203 211 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.7 29.6 29.0 28.5 27.3 25.1 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 167 166 157 149 133 111 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -53.0 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 7 6 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 60 63 68 73 73 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 7 8 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 67 82 77 79 77 52 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 49 63 83 84 128 112 175 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 -1 0 11 27 7 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 32 78 -33 63 275 828 1221 1239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 19.1 20.2 21.8 23.3 26.6 29.7 33.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.5 77.0 75.5 73.5 71.4 67.0 63.2 59.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 21 25 25 24 24 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 141 73 57 51 64 10 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 14 CX,CY: 11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 9. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -7. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -5. -7. -13. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.0 78.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL222023 TWENTYTWO 11/17/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 45.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 77.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.90 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.1 109.3 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL222023 TWENTYTWO 11/17/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL222023 TWENTYTWO 11/17/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 25 27 26 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 25 27 26 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 27 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT