* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 11/18/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 33 33 31 29 29 31 32 33 33 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 33 33 31 29 29 31 32 33 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 23 22 21 22 22 22 22 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 8 8 9 16 23 21 20 18 16 22 21 18 16 21 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 9 10 7 4 0 -5 -8 -4 -1 -1 -3 -3 -3 -3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 84 90 115 128 160 190 192 219 249 256 288 285 282 274 276 270 266 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 143 143 146 145 143 141 137 135 133 134 135 136 136 135 136 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.5 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 58 58 58 58 58 59 57 57 53 55 52 50 46 46 43 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 9 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 26 28 29 40 48 38 40 47 51 66 54 38 8 -10 -31 -32 -29 200 MB DIV 58 53 39 5 17 34 65 102 66 26 1 40 79 13 2 17 14 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 1 1 3 2 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1542 1568 1612 1656 1700 1777 1822 1873 1939 1975 1996 2019 2039 2027 1987 1940 1879 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.8 116.4 117.3 118.3 119.2 120.8 121.8 122.7 123.7 124.5 124.8 125.0 125.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 9 9 9 7 5 5 4 3 1 1 2 3 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 15 9 7 8 12 9 8 7 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 19. 27. 33. 37. 41. 42. 43. 43. 40. 37. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -9. -14. -17. -18. -21. -22. -20. -16. -13. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 8. 8. 6. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 115.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 11/18/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.74 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.11 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 -4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.9 49.8 to 0.0 0.90 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.85 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.6% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 7.2% 3.0% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 5.6% 3.7% 0.4% 0.0% 3.2% 3.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 11/18/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##