* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 11/19/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 28 30 32 34 36 39 37 37 39 41 41 39 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 28 30 32 34 36 39 37 37 39 41 41 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 25 25 24 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 5 8 11 23 21 13 9 8 12 17 19 18 17 20 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 11 8 5 3 -3 -9 -4 1 1 1 -1 -5 -6 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 93 110 120 131 170 200 208 223 237 252 293 291 307 306 291 283 284 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 142 144 146 145 144 144 141 140 139 139 140 140 141 144 146 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -53.3 -52.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 56 55 55 56 58 59 57 56 54 55 55 54 51 48 44 43 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 8 8 8 9 9 10 8 7 6 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 27 24 29 41 40 33 35 32 44 47 31 1 -26 -53 -50 -37 -37 200 MB DIV 60 57 7 25 37 15 65 56 29 -2 29 6 1 -17 -20 -26 -6 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1570 1602 1638 1679 1709 1746 1769 1789 1827 1866 1884 1880 1872 1833 1802 1755 1710 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.5 10.9 11.2 11.4 11.3 11.0 10.6 10.4 10.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.2 116.9 117.8 118.7 119.5 120.6 121.3 121.8 122.2 122.4 122.2 121.9 121.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 9 8 7 5 3 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 11 8 7 10 13 10 9 9 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 18. 26. 31. 36. 40. 42. 43. 44. 41. 38. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -8. -10. -10. -10. -12. -13. -12. -10. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 12. 12. 14. 16. 16. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.1 116.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 11/19/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.73 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.21 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 -4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.9 49.8 to 0.0 0.96 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.76 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 11.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 7.6% 3.6% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 6.6% 4.5% 0.5% 0.0% 3.6% 3.7% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 11/19/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##